Updated at 21:04,23-03-2021

New Poll: More Than Quarter Of Belarusians Believe Lukashenko Will Resign In 2025


More than a quarter of Belarusians believe that Alexander Lukashenko will cease to be President of Belarus in 2025 when his term ends. This is evidenced by the results of a public opinion “Belarusians’ views on the political crisis” conducted by the British analytical centre in the field of international relations Chatham House.

Almost a quarter of Belarusians didn’t vote

The poll showed that 23.2% of Belarusians did not vote in the presidential elections in August last year. Of those who voted, 50.4% cast their votes for Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, 21.2% voted for Alexander Lukashenko, 13% chose a “none of the above” option. The majority of the polled Belarusians are unambiguously positive about the protests against the current government – 25.4%, unambiguously negative 19.7%, 19.8% found it difficult to answer, another 16.5% view protests rather negative, 18.6% – rather positive.

61.3% are convinced that the election results were fraudelent, 13.8% do not agree with this statement, 24.8% could not express their attitude to it. 21.6% agree and 60.4% disagree with the following: “Even if the elections were not completely transparent, I am still happy with their results overall”.

67.2% of the polled believe that unjustified and excessive force was used by the security agencies when breaking up protests on 9-11August. 63.9% do not agree that the actions of law enforcement during the break-up of rallies were generally justified. 70.3% are convinced that violence against protesters must stop immediately.

For President Rumas – 4.3%, for Kochanova – 0.4%

Among othe things, Belarusians were asked to choose a person who they believe would make the best president of Belarus. In this list, which includes ex-presidential candidates in the latest elections, Viktor Babariko is in the lead with 28.8% of votes, Alexander Lukashenko got 27.4% and Pavel Latushko – 12.1%.

To the question “In your opinion, when will Alexander Lukashenko cease being the president of Belarus?”, 27.8% answered that in 2025, when his term ends. 22% are sure that this will happen by the end of 2021, 12.5% ​​- that In 2035 or later (he’ll serve at least
two more terms). Less than 10% believe that Lukashenko will resign in 2023-24, by June 2021 and in 2022, 6% are sure that this will happen before March of this year.

The respondents were also asked to choose which consequences of a leadership change they personally worry about. 38.6% fear a decrease in salaries and pensions, 27.2% – growth of unemployment, 19.9% – cancellation of social welfare benefits, 17.7% – growth in corruption, 17.6% – sale of government assets, 17.2% – collapse of the current government system, 17.1% – breaking off relations with Russia, 16.8% an increase in crime, 8.6% deficits of food and essential goods, 7.4% persecution of people supporting the current government, 6% found it difficult to answer, 1.2% of respondents worry about other reasons.

“To what extent do you trust or distrust the institutions listed below?” Most of the respondents (13.1%) trust the Svetlana Tikhanovskaya’s campaign. It is followed by the Orthodox Church (11.4%) and the team of Viktor Babariko (11.1%). The Coordination Council is trusted by 10.5% of the respondents, and president Lukashenko by 10.2%. The state media (2.6%) and the Protestant church (2.5%) are among the government institutions that inspire the least public confidence.

Belarusian People’s Congress doesn’t reflect the views of the people

A separate section of the questionnaire is devoted to the Belarusian People’s Congress. For example, it turned out that 47.6% of Belarusians had “heard something about it but don’t know the details”, 19.3% chose “This is my first time hearing about it” option, and only 33.2% “knew all about it”.

At the same time, 65.6% of Belarusians disagree with the statement that the Belarusian People’s Congress is a good representative for all Belarusians. As for the symbols, 41.4% answered that they “feel closest” to the red-green flag, the official emblem of Belarus, 32.6 % people said it was a white-red-white flag and the Pahonia emblem, 26% chose “none of the above”

A total of 926 respondents were surveyed between 14 and 20 January 2021. The sample’s composition corresponds to the general structure of Belarus’s urban population in terms of gender, age, and the size of respondents’ town of residence. The poll was conducted using the Computer Assisted Web Interview (CAWI) method, which in practice means that it was limited to internet users. The statistical margin of error (with a 95 per cent confidence level) does not exceed 3.22%