Pro-European sentiments increase, Lukashenka's rating falls

The Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS) published its new survey.

The pre-election monetary injection in Belarusian economy improves economic expectations of the people.

The Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS) published the results of its recent survey which proves the tendency.

The amount of people whose material condition deteriorated within the last three months reduced by 7 per cent compared to June (25 per cent vs. 32 per cent; the December figures are 60 per cent). The amount of those who believe Belarusian economy is experiencing recession decreased by the very same 7 per cent (64 per cent vs. 71 per cent; 82 per cent were in December).

There became more of those who believe that "in general the situation in the country is developing in the right direction" (34 per cent vs. 26 per cent in December).

However, positive economic expectations seriously lag behind negative sentiments: when 15 per cent admitted the improvement of the economic condition, 25 per cent denied it.

28 per cent suppose that social and economic situation in the country will worsen and only 18 per cent believe the situation will improve. It is obvious that the expert opinion about unsustainable "Belarusian model" is shared by millions of Belarusians.

The unsustainability can’t but change the public opinion on the government. Thus, when asked if they agreed that a strong leader can give country more that only good laws, 43 per cent responded positively and 49 per cent — negatively.

The actual “stabilisation” of Lukashenka’s rating despite the improvement of economic sentiments is an argument for this. The rating of Lukashenka hasn’t increased but fell down by 3 per cent (32 per cent in September vs. 35 per cent in March).

The "economic alerts" are amplified with the "feeling of unjust authorities." Thus one third of the respondents confirmed they were somehow offended by officials within last three years.

The dissatisfaction with the authorities is growing. The correlation among those who would vote for pro-Lukashenka candidate, independent candidate and opposition candidate at parliamentary elections is 23 per cent to 20 per cent to 7 per cent (vs. 31 per cent to 16 per cent to 5 per cent in 2008).

Still most Belarusian have no idea about the name of the elected MP.

The elections results do not meet the expectations of a significant part of the population. Most people however do not actually care about these results.

Millions of Belarusians do not expect any significant changes in their lives after the parliamentary elections.

The pro-European sentiments of Belarusian have increased fostered by these difficulties.

In June 44 per cent chose joining Russian instead of the EU which was supported by 40 per cent of Belarusian. Now 44 per cent want Belarus to be a part of the EU and only 36 per cent want further joining Russia.

Probably, Russian support which was the key of the stable economy has started being questioned by common Belarusians.

Thus, selling Belarusian shares of Beltransgaz to Russian Gazprom was supported by 10 per cent vs. 30 per cent of those who evaluated the deal negatively (though saying "Belarus had no other way"). 43 per cent shared the opinion it was not acceptable to sell Beltransgaz.

People also say against selling potash giant Belaruskali.

But it is too early to speak about new outburst of pro-European sentiments as the "bear bombing" performed by Swedish pilots was called a "bold protest against human rights violations" by 23 per cent only. It was considered to be "a provocation by secret services" by 14 per cent and "a stupid stunt" by 32 per cent. 32 per cent more have no idea about the incident.