Economist opines on future of Belarus' foreign exchange market
28 March 2022, 13:10
“Unfortunately, it has not been possible lately to rely on established economic laws, even on common sense. Of course, we can say that there are all economic prerequisites for the strengthening of the ruble: a drop in demand for dollars and euros due to the sanctions, transition to settlements in Russian rubles. At the same time, the influx of dollars, at least to Russia, has increased significantly, because oil and gas became more expensive and much more petrodollars are received for the same amount of hydrocarbons. Hence, a significant imbalance due to the excess supply and reduced demand. In other words, economic logic suggests that the dollar will weaken. In addition, given the transition to Russian rubles in payments for Russian energy resources by Belarus, the Belarusian ruble is expected to strengthen significantly,” Vasily Gursky said.
According to him, the price for a currency is not shaped by the supply and demand and economic factors, but by hoaxes, manipulations. “Unfortunately, some Internet resources, Western media are trying to sow panic and anxiety in order to fuel panic buying. These actions can significantly but temporarily increase or decrease the exchange rate or demand for some goods. Unless people make hasty decisions about their lives, resources and needs, our economy will not only withstand the current challenges, but even take advantage of all emerging opportunities.”
“The need for a particular currency is determined by the amount of trade with a particular country. Thus, the trade with China and Russia has been growing significantly in recent years. Until recently, we used dollars in transactions with them. If the designated concept in relation to China is implemented (negotiations are underway), the demand for yuan will increase significantly, while the demand for dollars will drop. Time will show when and how this will happen,” Vasily Gursky added.
