Updated at 13:44,25-10-2021

Andrei Illarionov: Russia to lose Smolensk and Bryansk after war


The defeat in the war initiated by Putin will lead to Russia's territorial losses.

Obligations for the return of historical territories to neighbouring states may be imposed on Russia, Vladimir Putin's former advisor Andrei Illarionov writes on his blog.

“If a large military conflict is initiated against a significant part of the world, today's Russia will likely to deal with a coalition of states which joint military, economic and demographic power exceeds Russia's one 16- or 18-fold. The result of the confrontation is predictable. Russia will be defeated. Its economic, housing and infrastructure potential will be destroyed. Electricity, water and gas supply will be stopped on huge territories. A threat of famine and mass epidemics will appear. If the ratio of casualties in the previous world wars is preserved, the casualties from the new military conflict may reach tens of millions of people. A significant part of Russia may be occupied by troops of foreign states that will establish the occupation regime,” Andrei Illarionov thinks.

Russia may lose its disputable territories, according to him.

“Pytalovo district in Pskov region will go to Latvia; Kingisepp district in Leningrad region will go to Estonia; the northern part of the Karelian Isthmus, Ladoga Karelia and Pechenga will go to Finland; Smolensk and Bryansk regions will go Belarus; Voronezh and Rostov regions as well as Krasnodar Krai will go to Ukraine; significant territories of Western Siberia will go to Kazakhstan; at least 1.5mn square kilometres of Siberia and Russian Far East will go to China; the Kuril Islands and Sakhalin will go to Japan,” he writes.

Andrei Illarionov does not rule out the possibility that gas and oil fields, the banking system and main pipelines may fall under international control.

“When will the Russians agree to give Crimea to Ukraine? In case of a direct aggression from Russia to a significant part of the world, the country will be defeated, its potential will be destroyed completely and large territories will face a threat of famine and epidemics.

An absolute majority of Russian citizens, who have survived the awful military conflict, will sincerely support the intention of the interim government (or will strongly demand) to immediately and unconditionally give the Crimean Peninsula to its undoubted owner, fraternal Ukraine. Resuming normal diplomatic, economic and human relations will become the priority goal of Russian society in the process of recovery after the terrible catastrophe. It is easier for Russia to return Crimea voluntary to prevent the implementation of the terrible scenario,” he concludes.