Belarus’ GDP will grow by 3.8 percent in 2013, the Research Center of the Institute for Privatization and Management, predicts in a report unveiled in Minsk on June 13.
The Research Center forecasts that real pay in the country will increase by 9.4 percent this year, but the rise in pay will subsequently slow down significantly, which will cause a similar trend in households’ consumption.
Amid these circumstances, fixed capital expenditures would become the main driver of economic growth, the Research Center says.
"However, this scenario cannot ensure a steadily high GDP growth rate," the report says. "In addition, it leads to an increase in external disproportions. We expect GDP to grow by 3.8 percent in 2013 and by 2.5 percent in 2014."
According to the Research Center, the stimulation of the lending market by the economic authorities and their pressure on companies with a view to making them increase their own fixed capital expenditures will help generate some resources for economic modernization.
Bank loans and government funds can lead to a rather significant rise in fixed capital expenditures in 2013, which may increase by 9.6 percent to account for 3.6 percentage points of the GDP growth, the report says.
The Research Center predicts that Belarus’ economic growth in 2014 will be solely thanks to domestic demand.
In 2012, Belarus’ GDP grew by 1.5 percent, whereas the government had projected an increase of five to 5.5 percent.
The government projected a GDP growth of 8.5 percent for this year, but the National Statistical Committee reported a 1.1-percent year-on-year increase in the first five months. //BelaPAN
