Due to a further fall in oil prices and the revision of the basic socio-economic development forecast in Russia for 2016, Belarus’ socio-economic forecast for 2016 will be revised too. The main scenario envisaged RUB rate against the US Dollar at RUB 63 per USD 1 and the average oil price at USD 50 per barrel. In early 2016, the Russian rouble already depreciated against the USD beyond the prediction. In the given circumstances, budget revenues are expected to shrink significantly, the cost of public debt servicing will grow and due to the recession in Russia, Belarusian economy in 2016 is unlikely to grow at 0.3% of 2015 GDP. Simultaneously, if the forecast is amended to negative economic growth in 2016, this would mean that the current economic model in Belarus is ineffective. Hence, the government is likely to predict zero growth in 2016, which eventually will not be implemented.
